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the courage to act
how to win in an unpredictable world through delusional confidence

Once, there were two lumberjacks — Jack and Bill — who had a friendly competition to see who could chop more wood in a day.
At sunrise, they both began chopping. Jack worked furiously, nonstop, from morning to evening, barely pausing to eat or rest. Bill, on the other hand, took regular breaks — every hour or so, he disappeared for 10 minutes.
Jack scoffed, thinking, "He'll never beat me if he keeps wasting time."
But at the end of the day, Bill had chopped significantly more wood than Jack.
Jack was shocked. "How is that possible? I worked harder and longer than you!"
Bill smiled and replied:
"Yes, but every time I took a break, I sharpened my axe."
Now the first time I heard this parable, I loved it. It made perfect sense.
As a control freak, I felt that I could guarantee my success as long as I put in the work to prepare and "sharpen my axe."
"Give me six hours to chop down a tree and I will spend the first four sharpening the axe." as allegedly Abraham Lincoln said.
Yeah that sounds nice but venturing into entrepreneurship, creation, and creative endeavors, I realized this story is almost deceiving...
This parable makes sense if the world is a predictable place. If every game we play involved the same tree and worked the same way.
But here's the biggest revelation I've had: in unpredictable games—in the natural chaotic world we live in where there are multiple right answers and no set path to success—there's no whetstone for you to sharpen your axe.
In a chaotic and unpredictable world, the tree is one special tree.
The tree itself sharpens the axe.
And the only way you sharpen it is by chopping with an axe that starts out blunt.
Only by the constant chopping does the axe get sharper.
Brian Armstrong said it perfectly: "action produces information."
This truth extends beyond entrepreneurship and startups to most ambitious endeavors—dreams and goals so big that you can't possibly see the A-to-Z plan clearly at the start.
In this essay, I hope to help you see things from a different perspective and give you the courage to act. To at least give your biggest ambitions a shot.
You might fail, you might succeed.
But I believe the worst is lying on your deathbed wondering what could be and not knowing the answer because you didn't answer to the call to adventure.
action produces information (and how school conditioned us otherwise)
When you're starting something ambitious, all you need to do is keep taking action to produce information.
This principle isn't just true for startups—it applies to any big dream or ambitious plan.
Most of the time, you don't know what the full A-to-Z plan will look like.
You don't know exactly how you'll achieve your goal, but you know you need to take action.
Directionally, intuitively, you know what step could come next, and by taking that action, it produces information and understanding. You learn something new, which equips you with what you need for the next step.
But don’t you think it’s funny how school conditions us to think otherwise? We spend years in a system where they give you the material first, then test you later. They tell you what to study, and all you need to do is prepare and take the test.
But most things in life work the opposite way—you take the test first (i.e., take action), learn from the experience, study those learnings, and then do better the next time. The real world requires you to act first, then learn, while school trained us to learn first, then act.
This reversal conditioning is I believe the reason why so many smart people get stuck planning endlessly instead of moving forward (myself included).
plans are bs, set intentions instead
Alex Hormozi has a great point when he says "plans are bullshit." For the most part, I agree.
Planning has its place, but it can be overdone. In our uncertain, ever-changing, and unpredictable world, detailed plans often become obsolete before they're implemented.
If action produces information, then creating a perfect plan becomes impossible—because the information you need to create that perfect plan only comes from executing on the plan itself. It's a catch-22, a chicken-and-egg problem.
So what do you do? You can't create a perfect plan because you don't have all the information you need to make it perfect.
Instead, I set intentions.
Intentions are simpler and more flexible than rigid plans.
They follow a format like:
I’d list out all the intentions I think are the next steps.
This list of intentions typically last one to two week and as you execute on them, you learn new things, get feedback from the real world, and that feedback creates new, clearer intentions.
You find yourself getting closer to the truth with each cycle.
Obviously, this principle applies within context. If you're building a rocket, designing a bridge, or creating something where failure is catastrophically costly, then detailed planning is critical. But for most endeavors—especially entrepreneurial and creative ones—mistakes aren't nearly as costly as people think. The pros of failing fast almost always outweigh the cons because you receive more valuable information from each failure than you could have anticipated in planning. This is where a certain "delusional confidence" becomes your greatest asset.
the scientific method & systems thinking
What I'm describing is essentially the scientific method applied to your ambitions. You start with a question, form a hypothesis (your intention), conduct an experiment (take action), observe the results, and draw conclusions.

The key is that you must document your learnings and not mindlessly repeat the same actions expecting different results. As Einstein reportedly said, "Insanity is doing the same thing over and over again and expecting a different result."
It's critical to understand that "take action" doesn't mean just doing random things repeatedly. There are plenty of people taking tons of action without getting anywhere—spinning their wheels but never gaining traction. They're missing the crucial feedback loop that transforms mere activity into progress.
The difference between effective action and wasted effort lies in your ability to extract meaningful information from what you do. You need to deliberately process what worked, what didn't, and why. This means asking questions after each action: What happened? Was that what I expected? What does this tell me about my approach? What should I adjust next time?
Without this reflective component, you're just accumulating experiences, not insights. It's the difference between having ten years of experience and having one year of experience repeated ten times.
This approach connects to systems thinking as well. Any system has three components: inflow, stock, and outflow. For example, if you're generating leads for a business, your leads are your stock, your marketing activities are your inflow, and your process goals are the daily actions that increase that stock over time.

Applying systems thinking means creating process goals—daily, weekly, and monthly actions that will accumulate to create the change you want. These process goals aren't static; they evolve based on the information your actions produce.
This combination of the scientific method and systems thinking creates a feedback loop that moves you forward when there's no clear path.
when in doubt, follow your internal compass
From the book "Conversations with God," I learned that every emotion (or source of actions) is ultimately a derivative of either love or fear.
Everything we do stems from these two root core emotions.
You can take two people, both equally ambitious, both doing the same things, but one could be acting out of fear while the other acts out of love.
If you ask both people why they do what they do (to their subconscious), they'll start with "I have an ambition" then you continue diving deeper down asking why and he might say because I want to be great → why? Because I want to be an important person → why? Because I feel like I'm not good enough.
Keep asking why enough and you'll see the root core emotion becomes out of fear (a negative emotion).
This person might be ambitious but ultimately, it's rooted in fear.
The other person might give different answers to those same "why" questions. Why are you ambitious? Because I'm curious about what's possible → why? Because exploring these ideas lights me up → why? Because I genuinely love the process of discovery.
This second person is driven by love, curiosity, and genuine desire.
This distinction forms your internal compass—the searching of your soul to understand what puts you in a state of flow.
Yet, I'm not saying "do what you love".
Everyone says that but it's very much misunderstood. It's not about doing only what feels pleasurable in the moment. If that were true, everyone would become a DJ or professional video game player.
It's about doing what makes you deeply curious—curious enough to want to figure it out, curious enough to stick with it for a long period of time, curious enough that you're crazy enough to do it even when it's hard. That curiosity and flow state while not considered love, is a derivative of the root emotion of love.

On top of that, the world appreciates greatness.
People pay for skills, and people pay attention to skills, and those skills come from mastery.
You can only become a master if you decide you will be, and you can only reach mastery in a field where you're truly in a state of flow and curiosity.
If you choose a path because it's trendy or hyped, you're choosing from a place of fear. From that place, it's nearly impossible to become a master. You cannot compete with people who are obsessed with their craft.
The reason I'm emphasizing this distinction between love and fear is because your internal compass is built upon recognizing your root emotion and choosing love. Ask yourself: "Where is my root motivation coming from? Is it fear or love?"
Your true internal compass always points toward love-based pursuits, but that's only half the equation. The other half is the path to mastery — the discipline to develop exceptional skills in your chosen field.
When you combine these two elements — action driven by love rather than fear, and the commitment to mastery — that's when your internal compass becomes truly powerful. This compass, is your intuition that will be the northstar to know if you’re on the right path or not.
the world runs on vibes

Aside point, I’ve recently gone deep into the world of AI and “vibe coding” created a couple micro web apps by just vibing with the AI and letting it handle the details.
I digressed, but this experience really got me thinking about something bigger.
You see, I’ve always thought leaders and CEOs had their shit together. Like they had some special access to certainty that the rest of us don't. But the more I paid attention, the more I realized: They're just vibing too.
A president doesn't actually know if their policy will work.
A CEO doesn't know for sure if their strategy will succeed. They make educated guesses and adapt as they go.
The whole world runs on vibes.
What we mistake for certainty is actually just comfort with uncertainty. What looks like confidence is often just someone who's willing to make decisions without perfect information.
The adults in the room? They're just winging it too. They've just gotten comfortable with it.
Nobody has a perfect map in this complex, chaotic world. Everyone's just feeling their way through, testing as they go.
This realization is actually liberating. It means the people who make the biggest impact aren't the ones with perfect information—they're the ones with the courage to act without it.
The world was built on vibes.
conclusion
You don't need to know the whole path going forward. You only need to know the next step and be directionally correct. When in doubt, follow your internal compass.
Learn to dream and see visions. Let those guide you, and intuition will light the way.
There's a beautiful story from Charlie Mackesy's book "The Boy, the Mole, the Fox and the Horse" I like to end with
A boy was with a horse
The boy wanted to go through the forest but it was dark and dense... and he says to the horse, "I can't see a way through."
And the horse asks, "Can you see your next step?"
"Well... yeah," the boy replies.
"Then just take that," says the horse.
The courage to act isn't about having perfect information or a flawless plan—it's about taking that next step when you can see it, trusting that the path will reveal itself as you move forward.
Ultimately, to answer the call to adventure (embarking on the path towards one's dreams) requires a form of delusional confidence—a leap of faith that things will ultimately work out even when you can't see the entire journey.
This delusional confidence is what separates those who could achieve great things from those who will lay on their deathbeds with the "what if".
In a world of uncertainty, the courage to act will be your greatest advantage.
You act, gather information, adjust, and keep moving forward. The tree sharpens your axe with each swing. So pick up the axe and keep swinging.
"You can't connect the dots looking forward; you can only connect them looking backward. So you have to trust that the dots will somehow connect in your future."
— Steve Jobs
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